渐进式延迟退休政策点评：适应人口发展新常态

Policy Overview - The gradual delay in retirement age is the first adjustment since 1951, aimed at adapting to the new demographic normal in China[3] - The retirement age for male workers will be raised from 60 to 63 years, and for female workers from 50/55 to 55/58 years over 15 years starting January 1, 2025[2] Demographic Context - As of 2023, the population aged 65 and above accounts for 15.4% of China's total population, indicating a shift to a moderately aging society[4] - The labor force is expected to face continuous decline, necessitating adjustments in retirement policies to enhance labor resource utilization[4] Pension System Insights - By the end of 2022, China's basic pension insurance accumulated a surplus of nearly 7 trillion yuan, with urban employee insurance at 5.7 trillion yuan and rural resident insurance at 1.3 trillion yuan, representing about 5.8% of the 2022 GDP[5] - As of July 2024, over 530.35 million urban employees and 542.39 million rural residents are enrolled in basic pension insurance, providing essential support for the elderly[5] Strategic Implications - The reform aims to improve labor supply and adapt to demographic changes while minimizing the impact on those nearing retirement[4] - The government plans to enhance the multi-tiered pension system, encouraging participation in enterprise annuities and personal pension plans through tax incentives[5] Risks and Considerations - Historical trends may not predict future outcomes, and structural imbalances in labor supply and demand could affect the effectiveness of these policies[6]