财税重塑系列之二：财政收支缺口还有多大？

Revenue and Expenditure Progress - General public budget revenue for the first seven months of 2024 was CNY 13.6 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.6%, significantly below the budget target of 3.3% by 5.9 percentage points[5] - The revenue completion rate for the first seven months was 60.6%, lower than the average of 64.9% from 2017 to 2023, only higher than the same period in 2022[5] - Non-tax revenue grew by 12% in the same period, increasing its share of total revenue from 16.45% to 18%[7] Fiscal Deficit and Funding - The expected shortfall in general public budget revenue by year-end could reach approximately CNY 900 billion, with government fund revenue likely to decline by 10%, corresponding to a shortfall of about CNY 700 billion[20] - The total revenue gap across both accounts is estimated at CNY 1.6 trillion, necessitating accelerated implementation of existing policies and introduction of new measures[20] - As of August, the net financing scale of national bonds reached CNY 3 trillion, accounting for 69.3% of the annual central deficit target, marking the highest progress since 2015[16] Government Financing and Debt Issuance - The issuance of special bonds has been slow, with a progress rate of 65.9% in the first eight months, the second lowest since 2019, but has accelerated since August[16] - The remaining quota for local government bonds is approximately CNY 1.3 trillion, with a total of nearly CNY 2.9 trillion available for financing through national and local bonds combined[20] - The central government has over CNY 8 billion in remaining quota space for national bond issuance, which can be utilized if necessary[20]