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基础化工行业周报：低预期下的“金九银十”，化工品种表现或将分化
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-09-17 08:23

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the basic chemical industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Chemical product prices are expected to show significant differentiation in September and October 2024, with a focus on products with good market conditions and upward demand elasticity, such as MDI, sweeteners, viscose filament, and refrigerants [3][14] - The industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with a gradual shift towards optimism as the reversal forces are developing [14][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on industry leaders with resilient performance and cost advantages, particularly in sub-sectors like MDI, coal chemical, spandex, and titanium dioxide [14][20] Summary by Sections Market Performance and Price Tracking - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 2.23%, while the basic chemical index fell by 2.06% during the week of September 9-13 [4][9] - Key price increases included natural rubber (+8.67%) and paraxylene (+7.13%) [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Yangnong Chemical, and others, focusing on those with strong earnings trends [14][15][20] - The report highlights the potential for companies like Dongyue Group and Yonghe Shares to benefit from industry trends [14][15] Key Company Tracking - Wanhua Chemical's MDI prices showed slight decreases, while polymer MDI prices increased [17] - Hualu Hengsheng's revenue from its Jingzhou base reached 3.79 billion yuan, with ongoing projects expected to enhance efficiency [19] - Juhua Co. reported a 70.31% increase in net profit for Q2 2024, maintaining its position as a leader in refrigerant quotas [20] - Sailun Tire achieved record production and sales, with a 105.77% increase in net profit for the first half of 2024 [22] Sub-industry Tracking - The new materials sector is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in areas with high technological barriers and market trends, such as adsorption resins and nano-silica [26]