房地产行业成交量的底部在何处：成交量的底部在何处

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the complexity of residential purchasing behavior in China, which includes housing, consumption, and financial demands. It introduces the "housing burden rate" as a measure to better utilize overseas experiences for predicting the Chinese real estate market [2] - Japan's real estate market has undergone three phases: the explosive phase (1960-1973), the equilibrium phase (1974-1996), and the recession phase (1997-2022). The average housing burden rate during these phases varied significantly, impacting housing prices and construction [3] - The U.S. real estate market has remained in an equilibrium phase for nearly 60 years, with an average housing burden rate of 54%. Fluctuations in this rate are primarily influenced by interest rates and housing prices [3] - China's housing burden rate has decreased from 97% to 59% from March 2021 to June 2024, indicating a potential bottoming out of the market. The report suggests that if policies continue to support demand and supply, the real estate market may recover [3] Summary by Sections 1. Dissection of Residential Purchasing Behavior - The peak of new housing construction has passed, and the report questions where the bottom of volume and price lies. It notes that the new housing sales area is expected to be 800 million square meters in 2024, reflecting a significant decline from previous years [43] 2. Japan's Real Estate Market and Housing Burden Rate - Japan's real estate market has shown distinct phases, with the housing burden rate averaging 31% during the recession phase, indicating a long-term decline in housing prices and a shift in consumer behavior towards renting [3] 3. Analysis of U.S. Housing Demand Attributes - The U.S. has maintained a stable housing burden rate, with fluctuations primarily driven by interest rates and housing prices. The report highlights the importance of these factors in understanding market dynamics [3] 4. Analysis of China's Housing Demand Attributes - China's housing burden rate has shown a significant decline, and the report suggests that there is still room for further reduction compared to Japan and the U.S. during their equilibrium phases. The report indicates that the current market conditions may undervalue quality real estate companies [3]