奥多比：Solid 3QFY24 results but soft guidance may weigh on short-term sentiment

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Adobe, with a target price of US$645.00, indicating a potential upside of 20.1% from the current price of US$536.87 [4][8]. Core Insights - Adobe reported solid 3QFY24 results, with total revenue increasing by 11% YoY to US$5.41 billion, and non-GAAP net income also growing by 11% YoY to US$2.08 billion, both in line with consensus estimates [2][3]. - The guidance for 4QFY24 was softer than expected, with Digital Media net new ARR guidance of approximately US$550 million, reflecting a 3% YoY decline, which raised concerns about revenue growth outlook for FY25E [2][3]. - The management attributed the softness in guidance to seasonal effects, including the absence of Cyber Monday in 4Q and certain deals being closed earlier in 3QFY24 [2][3]. Financial Performance - Creative Cloud revenue grew by 10% YoY to US$3.2 billion in 3QFY24, with net new ARR of US$341 million, driven by product innovations and user expansion [2][3]. - Document Cloud revenue increased by 18% YoY to US$807 million, with net new ARR of US$163 million, supported by strong usage growth and AI Assistant monetization [2][3]. - Digital Experience revenue was US$1.35 billion in 3QFY24, up 10% YoY, driven by strong subscription revenue growth [2][3]. Revenue Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for FY24-26E remain largely unchanged, with FY24E revenue expected at US$21.46 billion, FY25E at US$23.44 billion, and FY26E at US$25.52 billion [3][7]. - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to grow from US$8.27 billion in FY24E to US$9.80 billion in FY26E, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [3][7]. Valuation - Adobe is valued at US$287 billion, translating to a target price of US$645.00 per share based on a P/E ratio of 32x for FY25E, which is at a discount to the sector average of 36x [8][9].