A股四季度策略展望：东方欲晓

Core Views - The report suggests that after a period of reduced trading volume and market bottoming in Q3, there may be opportunities for a rebound in A-shares in Q4 due to credit recovery and policy support [1][5]. Market Trends - The macro environment is favorable for domestic economic and liquidity conditions due to overseas interest rate cuts, which may lead to increased policy efforts in Q4, potentially improving investment and consumption [2][11]. - A-shares are expected to experience a phase of profit recovery and policy-driven valuation uplift in Q4, with large-cap and high-quality small and mid-cap growth stocks likely to outperform [2][5]. - The report indicates that Q4 may present rebound opportunities for A-shares, particularly in technology growth and core assets [2][5]. Industry Configuration - In Q4, there is a need to select timing for high-dividend configurations, with technology growth and core assets presenting potential investment opportunities [2][5]. - The report emphasizes a growth-oriented style for Q4, with large-cap and high-quality small and mid-cap growth stocks expected to lead [2][5]. - Key sectors to watch include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), new energy vehicles, and pharmaceuticals, which are expected to benefit from liquidity easing and economic recovery [2][5][20]. Macroeconomic Environment - The report highlights that the U.S. job market is weakening, with August non-farm payrolls at 142,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2%, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts [11][12]. - U.S. inflation is showing signs of decline, with July CPI and core CPI at 2.9% and 3.2% respectively, indicating a potential economic slowdown [12][12]. - The report notes that fiscal policy is likely to strengthen in Q4, driven by weak domestic demand and external economic pressures, with historical precedents suggesting increased government spending during downturns [16][20].