美国大选进入白热化阶段，国内提振内需政策或将加码

Core Insights - The report highlights that Harris performed well in the first debate against Trump, gaining market recognition for her policy proposals and adaptability [4][9] - Following the debate, Harris's probability of winning increased from 53% to 57%, while Trump's dropped from 52% to 47% according to PredictIt [4][10] - The economic policies proposed by both candidates continue to favor a loose fiscal stance, but their approaches differ significantly, with Harris's policies being less stimulative compared to Trump's [4][12] Domestic Policy Implications - If Harris wins, it may negatively impact China's semiconductor, new energy, and artificial intelligence sectors, but could alleviate market concerns regarding export chains and promote domestic self-sufficiency policies [4][14] - Conversely, a Trump victory could negatively affect export chains but stimulate domestic demand policies [4][14] - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve's shift towards easing monetary policy will help alleviate external constraints on China's macroeconomic policies, leading to potential domestic demand recovery [4][14] Industry Performance and Recommendations - The report notes a divergence within domestic demand sectors, with industries related to equipment upgrades and trade-in policies, such as home appliances, machinery, and automobiles, showing improved performance in Q2 2024 [5][15] - The military industry is expected to see an increase in mergers and acquisitions following the "K8" policy, which encourages consolidation among listed companies [5][26] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on policies that boost domestic demand and self-sufficiency, with key events to monitor including the Federal Reserve's September meeting and developments in the U.S. presidential election [5][26]