定期报告：底部震荡，等待催化

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that significant positive policies or external events are crucial for the market to find a bottom, and currently, there is a need to wait for such catalysts [9][12][17] - Historical data shows that since 2005, there have been 10 major market bottoms, each preceded or followed by significant policy changes or external events that improved the fundamental outlook [9][10][12] - Recent economic data indicates a decline in key indicators such as investment growth (8.2% to 8.1%), consumption growth (2.7% to 2.1%), and real estate sales (-18.6% to -18%), suggesting a need for policy intervention [9][12][16] Group 2 - The report notes that liquidity conditions are expected to remain loose, with a high probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, which may lead to a global easing trend [9][12][17] - The sentiment indicators are nearing historical lows, indicating limited further downside potential, with trading volume declines reaching 52% since May 20, 2023 [17][20] - Valuation metrics show that the proportion of stocks with a price-to-book ratio below 1 is at a historically high level, indicating potential undervaluation in the market [17][20] Group 3 - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy focusing on technology growth, core assets, and undervalued dividend stocks, particularly in sectors like TMT and consumer goods [9][12][17] - It highlights that after a market bottom, sectors with high growth potential and those aligned with policy direction tend to outperform, with recent declines observed in construction, beauty care, and agriculture sectors [9][12][17] - The report also points out that core assets such as electric vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage sectors may present investment opportunities as policies continue to support these areas [9][12][17]