2024年8月美国CPI点评：核心通胀小幅反弹，9月降息25BP预期上调

Inflation Data - August CPI year-on-year increased by 2.5%, consistent with market expectations, down from 2.9% in the previous month[4] - Core CPI year-on-year remained stable at 3.2%, matching both market expectations and the previous value[4] - Month-on-month CPI adjusted for seasonal factors increased by 0.2%, in line with expectations[4] Market Reactions - On the day of the data release, 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields changed by +3 basis points and 0 basis points, respectively[5] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September have risen to 88% as of September 12[5] Price Trends - Energy prices saw a significant decline, with month-on-month growth dropping from 0.0% to -0.8%[5] - Core goods prices decreased slightly, with used car and truck prices showing a reduced decline from -2.3% to -1.0%[5] - Core service prices increased from +0.3% to +0.4%, driven by rising rent prices[5] Economic Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue to cool slowly, prompting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to adjust its dot plot and initiate a rate cut cycle[5] - The long-term trajectory of U.S. Treasury yields will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's future rate cut schedule[5]