2024年8月经济数据点评：增量稳增长政策必要性提升

Economic Overview - The necessity for stable growth policies has increased due to weak financing demand and declining consumer spending in August 2024[4] - August retail sales growth was only +2.1%, below the market expectation of +2.7%[10] - Fixed asset investment (FAI) in August grew by +2.0%, slightly better than July but below the cumulative growth of +3.4% for the first eight months[14] Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment in August recorded a growth rate of +8.0%, contributing to a cumulative growth of +9.1% for the first eight months[14] - High-tech manufacturing investment grew by +9.6% in the first eight months, outpacing overall manufacturing investment growth[15] - Equipment purchase investment surged by +16.8%, significantly higher than the overall fixed asset investment growth rate[15] Real Estate Sector - Real estate investment in August declined by -10.2%, with residential, office, and commercial property investments down by -9.8%, -11.6%, and -16.1% respectively[17] - Housing sales in August saw a significant drop, with sales amount and area down by -17.2% and -12.6% year-on-year[17] - The inventory cycle for commercial housing reached 34.5 months, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate market[17] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment grew by +6.2% in August, with a cumulative growth of +7.9% for the first eight months[18] - Special bond issuance accelerated in August, totaling 796.5 billion yuan, with 2.57 trillion yuan issued year-to-date, completing 65.9% of the annual plan[18] - Continued funding support is expected to maintain infrastructure investment growth above +7.0% for the year[19] Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth in August was +4.5%, ranking 34th in the last 60 months, indicating relatively weak performance[29] - The manufacturing sector's capacity utilization rate is at a low of 75.2%, which may constrain future investment growth[16]