锑系列深度三：立足供需库，展望锑的价值回归之路

Investment Rating - The report rates the antimony industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The antimony industry is experiencing a tightening of policies aimed at regulating the global supply chain, with key markets like the US, Japan, and Europe listing antimony as a critical metal [1][10] - China's antimony resource advantages have diminished over the past two decades, with its global reserve share dropping from over 40% to 29.5% and production share from 91.4% to 48.12% by 2023 [1][14] - There is a growing gap between domestic antimony production and apparent consumption, leading to increased reliance on imports [20][19] - The demand for antimony is expected to rise, with projections indicating a total demand of 191,200 tons by 2026, driven by applications in flame retardants, glass ceramics, and other sectors [38] Summary by Sections 1. Antimony Industry Policy - Recent policies have been implemented to regulate the antimony supply chain globally, with a focus on high-tech applications [1][12] - Historical context shows a shift from a "loose" to a "tight" regulatory environment for antimony in China [10][14] 2. Historical Overview of Antimony Resources - China's antimony production peaked in 2008, contributing 91.4% of global output, but has since declined significantly [14] - The country now faces a critical gap between its annual production of 40,000 tons and an average consumption of 134,000 tons, leading to a 90,000-ton shortfall [20][19] 3. Supply and Demand Characteristics - Antimony is characterized by low abundance and high demand elasticity, primarily used as an additive in various industrial applications [22][24] - The report anticipates a supply-demand reversal starting in 2023, with a projected supply gap of 24,000 tons by 2026 [38] 4. Inventory Trends - The report notes a significant reduction in antimony inventory levels, with a 36% decrease in metal antimony inventory year-on-year for the first half of 2024 [33][37] - The hidden inventory from the Pan-Asia Nonferrous Metals Exchange has been largely consumed, contributing to the tightening supply [33] 5. Mid-term Supply and Demand Outlook - Demand is expected to grow steadily, with a shift in consumption patterns favoring glass ceramics over traditional flame retardants [38] - Supply growth is anticipated to be limited, with domestic mining capacity constraints and slow overseas project ramp-ups [38]