WOLONG ELECTRIC(600580) 开源证券·2024-09-18 15:33Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's profitability was under pressure in the first half of 2024, but it is expected to benefit from motor replacement policies in the second half of 2024 [1] - The company's high-voltage motor business has strong barriers and stable profitability, and its aviation motor business has a clear competitive advantage [2] - The company is expected to benefit from the equipment replacement cycle in the second half of 2024 [2] Business Expansion - The company is actively developing the renewable energy industry, including wind, solar, hydrogen, and energy storage, while consolidating its position in general industrial fields such as air compressors and water pumps [3] - In the daily motor and drive sector, the company continues to focus on HVAC, washing machines, refrigerators, and small household appliances, and is actively exploring the EC field [3] - The electric transportation sector is steadily developing, with the company expanding into electric ships and electric aviation [3] - The "large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement" policy is expected to further release market demand [3] Aviation Motor Business - 2024 is expected to be the first year of the low-altitude economy, driven by policy and industry catalysts [4] - The company began developing aviation motor products in 2019 and has established strategic cooperation with WoFei ChangKong and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China [4] - The company's 70KW high-power aviation motor system passed expert acceptance in 2023, making it the only electric motor system company selected in the "2023 China Low-Altitude Economy Leading Enterprises TOP20" [4] - The company has a first-mover advantage in the flying car motor business and is expected to benefit from the mass production of flying cars [4] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 393 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35% [2] - In Q2 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 170 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51%, with a provision for impairment of 60 million yuan from Hongxiang Electric [2] - R&D and sales expenses in Q2 2024 totaled 450 million yuan, an increase of 110 million yuan year-on-year, with R&D mainly focused on aviation motors, permanent magnet drives, and bionic robots [2] - The company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 1.02 billion, 1.26 billion, and 1.42 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 12.9, 10.5, and 9.3 times for 2024-2026 [2] Financial Ratios - Revenue for 2024E is expected to be 17.236 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E is expected to be 1.021 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 92.7% [5] - Gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 24.8%, with a net margin of 6.1% [5] - ROE for 2024E is expected to be 9.1%, with an EPS of 0.78 yuan [5] Stock Performance - Current stock price: 10.08 yuan [6] - Total market capitalization: 13.188 billion yuan [6] - Turnover rate in the past 3 months: 117.12% [6]