8月社零报告专题：8月社零同增2.1%，关注消费政策力度

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Neutral" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [39]. Core Insights - In August 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,726 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, which is below the consensus expectation of 2.7% [7][11]. - The consumption market continues to show stable growth, with both urban and rural markets maintaining growth, and online consumption sustaining rapid growth [7][11]. - Urban retail sales amounted to 33,575 billion yuan, growing by 1.8% year-on-year, while rural retail sales reached 5,151 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.9%, surpassing urban growth by 2.1 percentage points [11][12]. - Online consumption outperformed offline consumption, with online retail sales of goods and services growing by 8.9% and 8.1% year-on-year, respectively [11][12]. Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - The retail sales in August 2024 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with total sales at 38,726 billion yuan, which is lower than the expected growth of 2.7% [7][11]. Category Performance - Both dining and retail sales increased year-on-year, with dining services totaling 4,351 billion yuan, up 3.3%, and retail sales of goods at 34,375 billion yuan, up 1.9% [15][21]. - Essential and other categories showed steady growth, while discretionary consumption confidence remained weak, particularly in real estate-related spending [17][21]. Price Performance - In August 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.6% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.8% [23][29]. - Food prices saw significant increases, with fresh vegetables and fruits rising by 21.8% and 4.1% year-on-year, respectively [23][29]. Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate in August 2024 was 5.3%, a slight increase from the previous month [31][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor and regional leaders in the liquor industry due to increased competition and pressure on demand [37]. - In the cosmetics sector, companies like Proya and Juzhibio are highlighted as strong performers, suggesting a focus on these alpha stocks [37].