【粤开宏观】美联储降息落地，全球大类资产向何处去？

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.75%-5%[1] - This is the first rate cut since the Fed began its tightening cycle in March 2022[1] - The rate cut is primarily preventive, aimed at mitigating recession risks amid slowing economic growth and cooling labor markets[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. CPI growth for August was 2.5%, marking the lowest increase since March 2021, and has declined for five consecutive months[1] - Non-farm payrolls added 142,000 jobs in August, below the expected 160,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%[1] - The Fed revised its 2024 GDP growth forecast down from 2.1% to 2%[2] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed is expected to implement two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in November and December, totaling a 100 basis point reduction for 2024[3] - The Fed's confidence in achieving inflation targets has increased, with the PCE inflation forecast for 2024 adjusted down to 2.3% from 2.6%[3] Group 4: Impact on Global Assets - Historical analysis shows that during previous Fed rate cut cycles, U.S. Treasuries and gold generally performed well, while equities faced downward pressure during crisis-driven cuts[4] - The stock market's performance is closely tied to economic fundamentals, with equities typically rising during preventive cuts and falling during crisis cuts[4] Group 5: Implications for China - The Fed's rate cut opens up more room for China's monetary policy, potentially leading to further rate cuts domestically[6] - The easing of U.S. monetary policy may support Chinese exports and stabilize the RMB against the dollar[6]