有机硅专题：否极泰来

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the organic silicon industry, with an investment rating of "看好" (Bullish) [3] Core Viewpoints - Organic silicon is a new material with increasing penetration across various applications, driven by its superior properties such as thermal stability, electrical insulation, and chemical inertness [3][11] - Demand: Overseas demand is strong, with China's organic silicon exports surging by 39.1% YoY in the first seven months of 2024, driven by global economic recovery and the end of overseas destocking cycles [3][17] - Supply: Overseas capacity is shrinking due to high energy costs and environmental regulations, while China's new capacity additions are expected to slow down significantly after 2024, leading to a marginal improvement in industry conditions [3][24][25] - Profitability: The price gap between organic silicon and raw materials has turned positive in 2024, indicating a recovery in industry profitability [32] Demand Analysis - Overseas Demand: China's organic silicon exports reached 319,000 tons in the first seven months of 2024, a 39.1% YoY increase, driven by strong demand from emerging economies like India [17][18] - Domestic Demand: China's DMC apparent consumption grew at a 9.1% CAGR from 2019 to 2023, supported by increasing penetration in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and home appliances [19] Supply Analysis - Overseas Supply: Overseas organic silicon monomer capacity stood at 2.05 million tons/year in 2023, accounting for 26.4% of global capacity, but is expected to decline further due to high production costs and environmental regulations [23][24] - Domestic Supply: China's organic silicon monomer capacity reached 6.38 million tons/year by August 2024, with the top 5 companies holding a 63.2% market share, up from 59.0% in 2017 [25][26] Industry Profitability - Price Trends: Organic silicon prices peaked at 60,000 RMB/ton in October 2021 but declined in 2022 due to oversupply and falling raw material costs [32] - Recovery in 2024: With overseas destocking cycles ending and domestic capacity additions slowing, the price gap has turned positive, and inventory levels are declining, signaling a marginal improvement in industry profitability [32] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key companies such as Hesheng Silicon (合盛硅业) and Xingfa Group (兴发集团), which are expected to benefit from the industry's recovery [34][35] Key Companies - Hesheng Silicon (合盛硅业): Current organic silicon intermediate capacity of 900,000 tons/year, with a market value of 58.4 billion RMB [35] - Xingfa Group (兴发集团): Current organic silicon intermediate capacity of 190,000 tons/year, with a market value of 19.89 billion RMB [35]