有色金属行业周报：旺季驱动下、基本金属显著去库，多因素共振、金价再创历史新高

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6][30]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the precious metals market is experiencing upward price trends due to lower-than-expected U.S. CPI and increasing gold ETF holdings, with gold prices reaching historical highs. The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive due to high real yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and economic pressures [6][7]. - In the base metals sector, the report notes a significant reduction in inventory levels driven by seasonal demand, which supports price stability. The long-term supply-demand dynamics suggest limited downside for base metal prices, particularly for copper and aluminum [6][8]. - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a recovery cycle, with mixed signals from domestic and international markets. The report emphasizes the need for improved domestic recovery momentum while noting positive trends in U.S. inflation data and European industrial production [6][30]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Precious metals prices are maintaining high levels, with COMEX gold at $2,610.70 per ounce (up 3.41%) and SHFE gold at ¥583.58 per gram (up 1.73%). Silver prices also saw significant increases [26][28]. - Base metals have shown overall price recovery, with LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel experiencing weekly changes of 3.4%, 5.6%, 3.7%, 7.2%, 3.0%, and 0.4% respectively [28][29]. Macroeconomic Factors - Domestic recovery momentum is still under pressure, with August CPI at 0.6% and PPI at -1.8%. The report indicates that while some financial indicators show resilience, overall economic activity requires further improvement [30][32]. - U.S. inflation data shows a decrease in CPI to 2.6% in August, which has led to increased expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [30][32]. Precious Metals - The report notes that the market is anticipating a rate cut, which is contributing to the upward trend in gold prices. The actual yield on U.S. Treasury bonds is around 2%, indicating a favorable environment for gold [7][26]. Base Metals - The report discusses the strong supply-demand dynamics in the aluminum market, with domestic aluminum production capacity stable at 43.476 million tons and a decrease in inventory levels. The copper market is also showing signs of improvement, with demand from the power grid and charging stations remaining robust [8][10]. Steel Market - The steel market is supported by seasonal demand, with expectations of continued strength in steel prices due to ongoing recovery in construction and infrastructure projects [12].