9月美联储议息会议解读：降息步入“快车道”

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to a target range of 4.75%-5%[1] - The median expected target rate for 2024 is now 4.1%, indicating at least another 50 basis points of cuts this year[1][4] Employment and Inflation Outlook - The unemployment rate forecast for 2024 has been raised from 4% to 4.4%[6] - The Fed has expressed greater confidence in progress towards the 2% inflation target, lowering the 2024 PCE inflation forecast to 2.3%[6] Economic Growth Projections - The expected GDP growth rate for 2024 has been slightly downgraded to 2%[2][8] - Recent economic activity is described as steady, but there are signs of a slowdown, with nine regions reporting flat or declining activity[2][8] Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the Fed's decision, U.S. stock indices initially rose but later fell, while bond yields decreased and the dollar index dropped[2][9] - The Fed's future rate cuts are not expected to become a regular occurrence, with decisions to be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis[4][9] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected inflation increases, tighter monetary policy, and a sharper economic downturn[10]