国君化工|配额政策延续,看好二代/三代制冷剂景气周期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the second-generation refrigerants and continues to favor the third-generation refrigerants due to ongoing policy trends [2]. Core Insights - The supply of second-generation refrigerants is expected to tighten as quotas are reduced, leading to potential price elasticity. The production quotas for HCFCs in 2025 will be 163,600 tons, representing a reduction of 67.5% and 73.2% from baseline values for production and usage respectively [1]. - The demand for R22 remains stable due to its performance and importance in the production of new fluorinated refrigerants and fluoropolymers. This stability, combined with supply constraints, suggests a potential for price increases [1]. - For third-generation refrigerants, the production quotas for HFCs in 2025 will remain the same as in 2024, indicating a strong demand in the market. The increase in domestic air conditioning, refrigeration, and automotive ownership will continue to drive demand [1]. - Refrigerant prices are currently stabilizing at high levels, with R22 priced at 30,500 RMB/ton and R134A at 32,500 RMB/ton as of September 14, 2024, showing varied monthly and quarterly changes [1]. Summary by Sections Second-Generation Refrigerants - The 2025 production quota for HCFCs is set at 163,600 tons, with significant reductions from previous years. The main varieties R22, R141b, and R142b will see reductions of 32,800 tons, 11,900 tons, and 6,000 tons respectively [1]. - Demand for R22 is stable, primarily in the maintenance market and new frequency air conditioning systems, suggesting a tight supply-demand balance that could lead to price increases [1]. Third-Generation Refrigerants - The 2025 production quota for HFCs is set at 18.53 million tons CO2, with an import quota of 1 million tons CO2, remaining unchanged from 2024. The increase in domestic and emerging market demand is expected to support the growth of this segment [1]. - The issuance of additional quotas for R32 indicates strong market demand and aims to optimize resource allocation without fundamentally altering the policy landscape [1]. Price Trends - As of September 14, 2024, the prices for various refrigerants are as follows: R22 at 30,500 RMB/ton, R134A at 32,500 RMB/ton, R125 at 29,000 RMB/ton, R32 at 34,500 RMB/ton, and R410A at 33,000 RMB/ton, with varying monthly and quarterly fluctuations [1].