美联储意外降息50bp，摸着石头过河

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75-5.0% on September 19, 2024[2] - The GDP growth forecast for the U.S. in 2024 was revised down to 2.0% from 2.1%, with core PCE inflation expectations lowered to 2.6% from 2.8%[2] - The market had a 55% probability of a 50bp cut and a 45% probability of a 25bp cut prior to the announcement, indicating uncertainty[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Labor Market - Average monthly job gains in the private sector from June to August 2024 were only 96,000, significantly lower than the 126,000 average in the three months before the 2019 rate cut[5] - The unemployment rate during the same period was between 4.1% and 4.3%, compared to 3.6% to 3.7% before the 2019 cut[5] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with increased immigration contributing to a faster rise in unemployment rates[5] Group 3: Future Rate Expectations - The Fed's dot plot indicates a further 50bp cut in Q4 2024, suggesting a total reduction of 100bp for the year[3] - The dot plot shows a neutral rate of 4.4% by the end of 2024, indicating potential for additional cuts[3] - The market is pricing in an average of 112bp in rate cuts for the remainder of 2024, reflecting expectations of multiple cuts[3] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, U.S. stock markets initially rose, but gains were reversed as Fed Chair Powell's comments did not reinforce aggressive easing expectations[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 3.64% after the announcement but later rose above 3.7%, indicating market volatility in response to the Fed's signals[5] - The market anticipates a potential 178bp cut by June 2025, with expectations of quarterly cuts exceeding 50bp[5]