美国经济：超预期幅度降息但指引偏鹰

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points, lowering the target range to 4.75%-5%[1] - The Fed's dot plot predicts a slight reduction in GDP growth from 2.1% to 2% for this year, while maintaining a 2% growth forecast for next year[1] - The Fed anticipates two more rate cuts totaling 50 basis points this year and four cuts totaling 100 basis points next year[4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The PCE inflation forecast for this year has been adjusted down from 2.6% to 2.3%, and for next year from 2.3% to 2.1%[1] - Unemployment rate predictions have been raised to 4.4% for this year and 4.3% for next year, indicating a slight increase in joblessness[1] - The current economic environment resembles that of 1995, where the Fed initiated a rate cut cycle amid moderate economic slowdown[2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock markets initially rose but then retreated, while Treasury yields and the dollar index experienced fluctuations[1] - The rate cut is expected to enhance economic expectations and asset prices, but may prolong the time needed for inflation to reach the 2% target[1] - The dollar's rate cut is likely to increase international liquidity and lower funding costs, benefiting emerging market currencies and equities[4]