美联储首次降息前后全球及中国资产价格的变化

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts can be categorized into recessionary and preventive cuts based on the economic context[3] - The current economic indicators suggest that the upcoming rate cut is more likely to be preventive, as the U.S. economy shows signs of soft landing despite some pressures[3][59] - Historical data indicates that during preventive rate cuts, U.S. stock markets tend to perform positively in the month leading up to the cut, with a 100% success rate[3] Group 2: Impact on A-shares - A-shares are expected to be indirectly influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, primarily driven by domestic economic fundamentals[4][8] - Historically, A-shares have outperformed emerging markets during Fed rate cuts, indicating strong allocation value[8] - A-shares tend to lag behind Hong Kong stocks post-rate cuts, but often outperform emerging markets[3][4] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The normalization of the U.S. Treasury yield curve suggests a decrease in recession risks, which may positively impact market sentiment[3][72] - The Chinese government is expected to continue implementing macroeconomic policies to stimulate growth, which could lead to a recovery in A-shares[8] - Consumer sectors such as food and beverage, and beauty care are projected to outperform the market in the months following a rate cut, based on historical performance[8]