海外观察：2024年9月美国FOMC会议-美联储调降经济预期，调高失业率，降息幅度超预期

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a target range of 4.75% to 5.0%[2] - The rate cut exceeded market expectations, but Chairman Powell's comments on future rate cuts led to asset price volatility[2] - The dot plot indicates potential rate cuts of 25 basis points in November and December, with a total of 100 basis points in 2025, subject to uncertainty due to the U.S. election[2][3] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The unemployment rate forecasts for 2024-2026 were raised to 4.4%, 4.4%, and 4.3%, up from previous estimates of 2.8%, 2.3%, and 2.0%[3] - Core PCE inflation expectations for 2024 and 2025 were lowered to 2.6% and 2.2%, down from 2.8% and 2.3%[3] - The GDP growth forecast for 2024 was reduced to 2.0%, down from 2.1%[3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - Asset prices showed significant volatility following the FOMC meeting, with shifts in equities, the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and gold[3] - There are risks of underpricing recession expectations and ignoring potential core inflation rebounds, particularly if unemployment triggers the Sam Rule[3] - Key risks include inflation uncertainty, global economic and geopolitical risks, and dollar liquidity risks[3]