有色金属行业周报：降息博弈：金铜价格的六次演变往事

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The report discusses the historical performance of gold and copper prices following interest rate cuts, indicating that gold tends to perform better in both preventive and accommodative rate cut cycles [12][18] - It highlights that the current interest rate cut cycle may resemble that of 2019, with strong expectations for a soft landing in the U.S. economy, but also notes the unique challenges posed by the upcoming U.S. elections and persistent inflation [29][31] Summary by Sections Historical Review of Gold and Copper Prices Post-Rate Cuts - The report categorizes U.S. rate cuts into preventive and accommodative types, noting that each type has different impacts on commodity prices [13][21] - Historical data shows that gold generally has a higher success rate in price performance during complete rate cut cycles compared to copper [16][18] - The report emphasizes that during short-term periods following rate cuts, gold typically sees an increase while copper's performance is more variable [16][21] Updates on Key Metals - Precious Metals: Gold shows stronger certainty during the rate cut cycle [31] - Copper: Short-term uncertainty exists, but long-term price outlook remains positive due to supply constraints and demand from sectors like renewable energy and AI [32] - Aluminum: High profitability is expected to continue, with potential differentiation in green aluminum [33] - Lead and Zinc: Supply tightness persists despite some overseas zinc mine restarts; attention is on smelting production cuts [35] - Tin: Prices are expected to remain strong in the short term due to macroeconomic recovery and semiconductor demand [36] - Nickel: The market is sensitive to changes in Indonesian mining conditions, with potential for price elasticity [37] Price Movements - The report provides weekly price changes for various metals, indicating significant increases in precious metals like gold (+3.87%) and silver (+8.03%), as well as industrial metals like copper (+3.38%) and aluminum (+5.62%) [3]