美联储9月货币政策会议点评与展望：50bp超常规开启降息凸显美联储呵护就业市场决心，但后续降息节奏不确定性较强

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the federal funds rate target range from 5.25%-5.50% to 4.75%-5.00%, a decrease of 50 basis points[1] - This marks the first rate cut since the tightening cycle began in March 2022, with one FOMC member voting against the 50 basis point cut, suggesting a preference for a 25 basis point reduction[1] - The updated dot plot indicates a significant downward revision in rate expectations, with the median rate forecast for this year dropping from 5.125% to 4.375%[1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed slightly lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year by 0.1 percentage points, while maintaining projections for the following two years[1] - Unemployment rate expectations were raised by 0.4 percentage points for this year and by 0.2 percentage points for the next two years[1] - PCE inflation expectations were reduced by 0.3 percentage points for this year and 0.2 percentage points for next year, indicating a more favorable inflation outlook[1] Group 3: Rationale for Rate Cut - The 50 basis point cut is seen as a preemptive measure to prevent a rapid cooling of the labor market amid rising unemployment rates[2] - Recent labor market data shows a significant decline in job creation, with the average monthly increase in private sector jobs dropping to 96,000 from 185,000 earlier in the year[2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, nearing a critical threshold that could signal an economic downturn[2] Group 4: Inflation Trends - Core CPI has shown a steady decline, with the year-on-year growth rate falling from 3.9% at the beginning of the year to 3.2% in August[3] - The breadth and stickiness of inflation are decreasing, as indicated by the Cleveland Fed's trimmed mean CPI and the Atlanta Fed's sticky CPI metrics[3] - The Fed's confidence in achieving inflation targets has increased, allowing for a more aggressive rate cut without immediate inflationary concerns[3] Group 5: Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed is expected to implement two additional 25 basis point cuts by the end of the year, totaling a 100 basis point reduction, aligning with the dot plot guidance[4] - The pace and magnitude of future rate cuts remain uncertain, influenced by economic resilience and inflation trends[4] - The Fed's flexible approach suggests that future rate adjustments will be data-driven, with no preset path for rate changes[5]