XIAOMI(01810) 民生证券·2024-09-19 08:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Xiaomi Group, with a target valuation of RMB 5951.36 billion for 2024 [53] Core Viewpoints - Xiaomi Group has upgraded its strategy to "Human x Car x Home Ecosystem," entering the smart electric vehicle (EV) sector, with significant growth in revenue and adjusted net profit in 2Q24 [1] - The company's smartphone business continues to grow, with a 28.1% YoY increase in global shipments in 2Q24, driven by AI integration and premiumization [1][15] - IoT and lifestyle products revenue reached RMB 268 billion in 2Q24, with a record-high gross margin of 19.7%, supported by a robust ecosystem [1][13] - Xiaomi's smart EV business, particularly the Xiaomi SU7, has shown strong initial performance, with 27,307 units delivered in 2Q24 and a target of 120,000 units for 2024 [1][13] - The company's R&D investment in 2Q24 increased by 20.7% YoY to RMB 5.5 billion, focusing on smart EV and AI technologies [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 3422.35 billion, RMB 3745.29 billion, and RMB 4393.95 billion, respectively, with a CAGR of 17.64% for adjusted net profit [1][52] - Smartphone revenue is expected to grow at 15.0%, 10.0%, and 12.0% annually from 2024 to 2026, with gross margins improving to 14.5% by 2026 [48][52] - IoT and lifestyle products revenue is forecasted to grow at 20.0%, 5.0%, and 2.5% annually, with gross margins reaching 20.2% by 2026 [48][52] - Internet services revenue is projected to grow at 12.5%, 5.0%, and 7.0% annually, with gross margins improving to 77.0% by 2026 [49][52] - Smart EV revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a 100% increase in 2026, driven by the Xiaomi SU7's strong market performance [49][52] Business Segments Smartphones - Xiaomi's global smartphone market share reached 14.6% in 2Q24, with shipments of 42.2 million units, a 28.1% YoY increase [1][15] - The company's premium smartphone strategy is paying off, with a 22.1% share of high-end smartphone shipments in China in 2Q24 [1][17] - AI integration in smartphones is expected to drive both volume and price growth, with AI phone penetration projected to reach 15% globally by 2024 [22] IoT and Lifestyle Products - Xiaomi's IoT platform connected 822 million devices as of 2Q24, with a 25.6% YoY increase in connected devices [27] - Key categories such as smart home appliances and wearables continue to grow, with smart air conditioner shipments increasing by 49% YoY in 2023 [31][32] - The company's IoT revenue reached RMB 268 billion in 2Q24, with a record-high gross margin of 19.7% [1][13] Internet Services - Internet services revenue grew by 11.0% YoY in 2Q24 to RMB 83 billion, with a gross margin of 78.3% [1][13] - The global monthly active users (MAUs) of MIUI reached 675.8 million in 2Q24, a 11.5% YoY increase [37] - Advertising and gaming revenues continue to grow, with advertising revenue reaching RMB 60 billion in 2Q24, a 16.9% YoY increase [38] Smart Electric Vehicles - Xiaomi's smart EV business achieved revenue of RMB 6.4 billion in 2Q24, with a gross margin of 15.4% [13] - The Xiaomi SU7 series delivered 27,307 units in 2Q24, with a target of 120,000 units for 2024 [13] - The company plans to expand its sales and service network to 39 cities by the end of 2024 [42] Industry Trends - The global smartphone market is recovering, with a 6.5% YoY increase in shipments in 2Q24, driven by AI integration and premiumization [15][22] - The AI phone market is expected to grow rapidly, with global shipments of AI-enabled smartphones projected to reach 170 million units in 2024 [22] - The smart EV market is highly competitive, with Xiaomi focusing on core technologies such as super motors, CTB battery technology, and intelligent driving systems [43][46]