上海建科：工程咨询与检测龙头，旧房检测潜力大

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the company, with a projected net profit of 3.47 billion, 3.87 billion, and 4.34 billion for 2024-2026, reflecting growth rates of +10.03%, +11.33%, and +12.25% respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 18.62, 16.72, and 14.90 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading engineering consulting and testing firm in East China, with a diversified revenue structure: engineering consulting (54.54%), inspection and testing (29.92%), and environmental low-carbon technology services (11.02%) [1][12]. - The engineering consulting industry is highly competitive and fragmented, with the leading firms holding only a 1.4% market share, indicating significant room for growth [1][25]. - The low-altitude economy and old housing inspections present substantial growth opportunities, with the potential market for old housing inspections estimated between 902.44 billion and 1547.04 billion [1][2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1958, has evolved into a comprehensive engineering research unit and was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2023. It is controlled by the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, which holds 51.26% of the shares [1][11][14]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 40.09 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and a net profit of 3.16 billion, up 14.57%. For the first half of 2024, revenue was 16.5 billion, growing 4.17%, with a net profit of 0.77 billion, increasing 16.51% [1][14][15]. Industry Analysis - The engineering consulting industry is characterized by a high number of firms (29,352) and low concentration, with the top firms capturing only a small market share. The inspection and testing sector is seeing a trend towards increased concentration, with larger firms gaining a more significant share of the market [25][30]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the low-altitude economy, driven by government policies aimed at developing this sector, and the increasing demand for old housing inspections as part of urbanization efforts [1][2][25]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from rising urbanization rates and the expansion of the low-altitude economy, with projected revenue growth rates of 11.78%, 11.66%, and 11.40% for 2024-2026 [2][4].