国君电子|三重因素拉动电子行业上半年业绩反转

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the electronic industry, predicting a performance reversal in 2024 driven by several key factors [1][5]. Core Insights - The electronic industry is expected to experience significant performance improvement across various segments in 2024, primarily due to inventory cycles, AI innovation, and self-sufficiency in semiconductor manufacturing [1][5]. - The inventory replenishment cycle began in Q2 2023 and is nearing its end, with a notable price recovery in components such as storage chips, which have seen price increases of 70%-80% [1][2]. - AI innovation is expected to continue driving high growth in related industries, with substantial capital expenditure in cloud-side AI, particularly from companies like NVIDIA [1][2]. - The self-sufficiency in semiconductor manufacturing in mainland China is strengthening, with utilization rates for mature process fabs significantly higher than those overseas [2][5]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Industry Performance - The semiconductor design sector showed strong performance in H1 2024, with global sales growth reaching 19% and China's growth at 24% in May [2]. - The AIoT category began its inventory replenishment in Q1 2024, with many digital SoC and niche storage companies maintaining over 50% growth in Q2 [2]. - The overall semiconductor revenue growth is attributed to both volume and price increases in the storage category [2]. Manufacturing and Equipment - The integrated circuit manufacturing sector in China reported revenues of 24.327 billion yuan in Q2 2024, reflecting a 24.83% year-on-year increase [3]. - The integrated circuit packaging and testing industry also saw revenue growth, with Q2 2024 revenues reaching 20.973 billion yuan, up 24.23% year-on-year [3]. - The semiconductor equipment sector maintained a high gross margin of 40%, with strong order growth [3]. AI and Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics components sector experienced significant profit growth, driven by increased demand for new products from major clients [4]. - Foldable screens emerged as a major hardware innovation, with sales data showing approximately 185.7 million units sold in Q1 and 257 million units in Q2 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 83% and 104.6% respectively [4]. - The support from government policies for AI and integrated circuits is expected to contribute to stable industry development [5].