2024年9月FOMC会议点评：美联储如期降息，过山车行情演绎

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 50 basis points, maintaining the federal funds target rate at 4.75%-5.00%, aligning with market expectations[3] - The median forecast for the federal funds rate is expected to drop to 4.4% by the end of 2024 and to 3.4% by the end of 2025, indicating a total reduction of 100 basis points[4] Economic Outlook - The unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2024 has increased from 4.0% to 4.4% since the June meeting[5] - Economic growth forecast for 2024 has been revised down from 2.1% to 2.0%, while the PCE inflation forecast has decreased from 2.6% to 2.3%[5] Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index experienced a slight decline, while gold and U.S. stocks saw minor increases[6] - However, after Fed Chair Powell's comments, Treasury yields rose again, with the 10-year yield fluctuating from 3.70% to 3.65% and then back to 3.72%[6] Inflation and Future Projections - The decline in oil prices has played a crucial role in bringing the U.S. CPI below 3%, but core CPI components remain resilient, making further declines challenging[7] - The future trajectory of Treasury yields will depend on the Fed's actions in upcoming meetings and the performance of key economic indicators such as inflation and unemployment[7] Risk Factors - There are risks associated with U.S. inflation being more resilient than expected, uncertain economic recovery, and potential underperformance in the job market[8]