美联储2024年9月议息会议点评：美联储“预防式”降息50BP，政策重心转向助力经济实现软着陆

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate from 5.25%-5.50% to 4.75%-5.00%[3] - This marks the first rate cut since the tightening cycle began in March 2022[3] - The Fed maintained a redemption scale of $250 billion for U.S. Treasury securities and $35 billion for agency debt and MBS[3] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The Fed revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2024 to 2.0%[6] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2024 was raised by 0.4 percentage points to 4.4%[6] - The PCE inflation forecast for 2024 was lowered from 2.6% to 2.3%, a reduction of 0.3 percentage points[6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock indices initially rose, with the Nasdaq gaining over 1% during trading[3] - However, after hawkish comments from Powell, major U.S. indices closed lower, and the dollar index rebounded[3] Group 4: Future Policy Uncertainty - Powell indicated that the Fed's future policy path remains uncertain, with no preset course for rate adjustments[7] - The dot plot showed that 9 out of 19 officials expect cumulative rate cuts of no more than 75 basis points in 2024, while 10 officials anticipate cuts of at least 100 basis points[7]