9月LPR报价为何保持不变？

Group 1: LPR Rates and Economic Context - The 1-year LPR remains unchanged at 3.35%, and the 5-year LPR is also steady at 3.85% as of September 20, 2024[1] - The recent expectation for domestic interest rate cuts has increased following a 50 basis point reduction by the Federal Reserve on September 19, 2024[1] - The current economic environment shows a steady but weak trend, influenced by insufficient effective demand and other factors, leading to a cautious approach in monetary policy adjustments[1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Considerations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) previously lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points in July, which has led to a wait-and-see period for policy effects[1] - The net interest margin for banks has narrowed to 1.54%, down 0.15 percentage points from the previous year, indicating constraints on further rate cuts[1] - A potential reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate of 10 to 20 basis points is anticipated in the fourth quarter, which could lead to a corresponding decrease in LPR[2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The likelihood of a rate cut in the fourth quarter is supported by the need to achieve a 5.0% economic growth target and to manage risks in key sectors like real estate[2] - Recent regulatory changes and banks' initiatives to lower deposit rates may help alleviate pressure on net interest margins, encouraging LPR adjustments[2] - The PBOC aims to improve the quality of LPR quotes to better reflect actual loan market rates, which may allow for LPR adjustments independent of policy rate changes[2]