房地产深度报告（二）：土地财政退潮：经济增长模式的转折点与地产的未来

Group 1: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market remains weak, with a 10.1% year-on-year decline in national real estate development investment in Q2 2024, and a 25.0% drop in sales revenue[7] - Housing prices have decreased significantly, with new residential sales area down 21.9% and sales revenue down 26.9%[7] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing has increased by 15.2% year-on-year, indicating ongoing market weakness[7] Group 2: Economic Impact and Policy Response - The decline in housing prices has negatively affected consumer and investment behavior, leading to a contraction in M1 money supply, which experienced four consecutive months of negative growth[7] - Local government land transfer revenue has decreased by 14% year-on-year, marking 25 consecutive months of negative growth, which puts pressure on local finances[12] - The current macroeconomic policy focus is on addressing structural adjustments and fiscal gaps resulting from declining land finance, with a "waiting" phase for real estate issues[1] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Under a neutral assumption, the decline in housing prices is expected to continue until late 2025 or early 2026, with increasing opportunity costs if the downward trend persists[1] - The weakening of land finance may lead to reduced subsidies for industries, impacting export competitiveness[2] - Risks include potential policy measures being less effective than expected, leading to further deterioration in real estate data and slower economic growth momentum conversion[2]