2024年8月经济数据点评：扩内需政策效果有待进一步显现

Economic Performance - In August, industrial production growth slowed to 4.5%, down from 5.1% in July and below the market expectation of 4.7%[1] - The service sector production index also decreased to a growth rate of 4.6%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point decline from July[1] - Monthly GDP growth is estimated to be around 4.5%, increasing pressure to meet the annual economic development target[1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was 3.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[1] - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10.2%, unchanged from the previous month[1] - Private investment saw a year-on-year decline of 0.2% in August, marking the first negative growth in 2024, primarily due to the drag from real estate investment[1] Real Estate Market - The impact of real estate policies has been weak, with new housing sales showing slight improvement but overall market conditions remaining poor[1] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for new homes remains high at 11.4, indicating significant pressure on inventory reduction[1] - The price index for second-hand homes in 70 major cities fell by 8.6% year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a 9.4% decline[1] Consumer Spending - Retail sales growth for consumer goods was only 2.1% year-on-year in August, below the market expectation of 2.7%[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 5.3%, indicating a potential decline in consumer confidence and spending power[1] - Online retail sales growth also slowed, with physical goods online retail sales increasing by only 8.1% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] Credit and Financing - New RMB loans in August totaled 900 billion yuan, slightly above the market expectation of 885 billion yuan, but still a year-on-year decrease of 310.3 billion yuan[1] - Total social financing increased by 3.03 trillion yuan, slightly better than the expected 2.7 trillion yuan, but still a year-on-year decrease of 979 billion yuan[1] - M1 money supply growth fell sharply by 7.3%, significantly below the market expectation of a 2.3% decline, indicating weak economic vitality[1]