Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the overseas market share of domestic forklifts has significantly increased from 14.73% in 2019 to 29.61% in 2023, driven by the advantages of lithium battery technology and shorter delivery times [8][9] - The report emphasizes that the domestic lithium battery forklifts are expected to achieve a competitive edge globally, with a projected export scale of 229 billion, 259 billion, and 292 billion CNY from 2024 to 2026 [2][8] - The report identifies that the market share of electric forklifts in Europe and the Americas is expected to rise, with the domestic market share for 1+2 class forklifts in Europe reaching 16.58% in 2023, indicating significant growth potential [21][30] Summary by Sections Section 1: Overseas Market Share and Competitive Landscape - The report discusses the competitive landscape across different regions, noting that the market share of domestic forklifts in Asia reached 86.67% in 2023, with a shift in growth momentum towards 1+2 class forklifts [17][19] - In Europe, the market share of domestic forklifts has increased from 16.18% in 2020 to 25.27% in 2023, benefiting from the higher electric forklift adoption rate [21][22] - The Americas show a lower market share for domestic forklifts at 25.68% in 2023, with a competitive landscape characterized by a "one strong, many strong" dynamic [27][28] Section 2: Lithium Battery Forklift Competitiveness - The report outlines that domestic lithium battery forklifts benefit from a mature supply chain, leading to a cost advantage of over 1,000 USD compared to overseas products [2][9] - It highlights that the cost of lithium batteries constitutes about 24% of the total cost of lithium forklifts, and the decline in lithium prices is expected to further enhance cost competitiveness [2][9] - The report notes that the maintenance requirements for lithium battery forklifts are lower, mitigating previous disadvantages in after-sales service for domestic brands [2][9] Section 3: Future Market Potential - The report forecasts that the export scale of domestic forklifts is expected to reach 229 billion CNY in 2024, with leading companies like Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group positioned to benefit from international market expansion [2][8] - It emphasizes that the growth in market share for 1+2 class forklifts will be driven by the ongoing lithium battery adoption, particularly in regions with high electric forklift penetration [21][30] - The report concludes that the competitive landscape will continue to evolve, with domestic brands expected to gain further market share through enhanced product performance and cost advantages [2][8]
叉车深度系列二：何以燎原—出海竞争力和市占率的探讨
广发证券·2024-09-20 06:46