Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 50 basis points (BP) to a target range of 4.75%-5.00%[2] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2024 was raised by 0.4 percentage points (PCTS) to 4.4%[3] - The GDP growth forecast for 2024 was reduced to 2.0%[3] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The PCE inflation forecast for 2024 was revised down from 2.6% to 2.3%, a decrease of 0.3 PCTS[4] - Core PCE inflation forecast for 2024 was adjusted down from 2.8% to 2.6%, a reduction of 0.2 PCTS[4] - The long-term federal funds rate forecast was increased from 2.8% to 2.9%[4] Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock indices initially rose but later fell due to hawkish comments from Powell[2] - The market anticipates an additional 75 BP rate cut within the year, with a majority of officials suggesting only 1-2 more cuts of 25 BP each[5][12] - Risks of overly optimistic market expectations regarding future rate cuts were highlighted, indicating potential volatility in capital markets[5]
美联储2024年9月议息会议点评美联储“预防式”降息50BP，政策重心转向助力经济实现软着陆
AVIC Securities·2024-09-20 06:35