银行行业专题报告：日本90年代银行业发展回顾

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report explores the historical development of the Japanese banking industry during the 1990s, particularly focusing on the impact of the economic bubble burst and subsequent recession [2] - The analysis divides the 1990s into four distinct periods: peak economic phase (1989-1990), economic downturn (1991-1993), economic stabilization (1994-1996), and financial crisis (1997-2000) [2][6] - The report highlights the significant changes in the banking sector's fundamentals throughout these periods, including revenue stagnation and profit reduction [2] Summary by Sections Economic Peak Phase: 1989-1990 - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates five times to combat asset bubbles, leading to a decline in bank revenues and profits [8] - The peak of real estate prices occurred in Q4 1990, marking the beginning of the economic bubble's collapse [8] Economic Downturn: 1991-1993 - The introduction of the land price tax law in 1991 accelerated the decline in real estate prices, contributing to a recession [15] - The Bank of Japan implemented seven interest rate cuts during this period to stabilize the economy [15][18] - The banking sector faced increasing credit risks, with several financial institutions declaring bankruptcy [22] Economic Stabilization: 1994-1996 - The economy began to recover, although the 1995 Great Hanshin Earthquake temporarily disrupted growth [26] - The government initiated fiscal measures to reduce the budget deficit and stabilize the economy, including the introduction of a consumption tax [26][28] - Despite rising revenues, banks reported significant losses due to the write-off of bad loans [30] Financial Crisis: 1997-2000 - The Asian financial crisis in 1997 led to a wave of bank failures and necessitated government intervention [36] - The government introduced a series of economic stimulus packages totaling 16.65 trillion yen to support the banking sector [37] - The Bank of Japan adopted a zero interest rate policy in 1999 to further stabilize the financial system [37]