TFME(002156) 国联证券·2024-09-20 09:38Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating (首次) to the company, with a target price of 24.29 yuan based on a 2.5x PB multiple for 2024 [4][9][57] Core Views - The company is a leading semiconductor packaging and testing provider in China, ranking 4th globally and 2nd in mainland China in 2023 [2][7] - As AMD's largest packaging and testing supplier, accounting for over 80% of AMD's orders, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the rapid growth of AI and computing industries [2][5][7] - The company has a comprehensive layout in advanced packaging technologies, including 2D+, 3D stacking, and Chiplet, with several technologies already verified and mass-produced [5][14] - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.59% from 2024 to 2026, with net profit projected to increase significantly due to the company's leadership in advanced packaging and strong customer relationships [5][9] Industry Overview - The global advanced packaging market is expected to grow from 65 billion by 2027, driven by the increasing difficulty and cost of improving chip performance through process advancements [5][22] - Chiplet technology, which allows for modular chip design, is becoming increasingly important for cost reduction and performance improvement, with the market expected to reach $57 billion by 2035 [25][26][28] - The semiconductor packaging and testing market is dominated by Taiwanese and mainland Chinese companies, with the company holding a 7.9% global market share in 2023 [29] Company Analysis - The company has seven major production bases and plans to acquire a 26% stake in Jinglong Technology to further enhance its industrial layout [36][37] - Revenue from the company's largest customer (AMD) has grown from 42.97% in 2018 to 59.38% in 2023, reflecting a strong and growing partnership [5][34] - The company has made significant progress in areas such as memory, display drivers, and power semiconductors, with several products entering mass production [14][44] - R&D investment has been consistently high, with the company holding over 1,500 patents, more than 60% of which are related to advanced packaging technologies [46][47] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to reach 25.85 billion yuan in 2024, 30.66 billion yuan in 2025, and 36.06 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 17.59% [5][9] - Net profit is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 115.91% from 2024 to 2026, driven by the company's leadership in advanced packaging and strong customer relationships [5][9] - The company's valuation is supported by a FCFE model, which estimates a fair value of 23.16 yuan per share, and a PB multiple of 1.9x, which is below the industry average [52][55][57]