Zhongyuan Securities·2024-09-20 10:31Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a projected increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [2][28]. Core Insights - The company achieved an operating income of 30.183 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.570 billion yuan, down 6.51% year-on-year [4][6]. - The company’s investment income (including fair value changes) and other income have increased, while the proportions of brokerage, investment banking, asset management, and interest net income have all seen varying degrees of decline [7][10]. - The company remains a leader in wealth management and institutional brokerage, with a net income from brokerage business of 4.880 billion yuan, a decline of 7.75% year-on-year, which is better than the industry average [10][11]. - The investment banking sector faced significant pressure, with net income from investment banking fees down 54.63% year-on-year, while debt financing business showed stability with a slight increase [11][14]. - The company’s asset management fees decreased slightly, but the scale of public fund management continued to grow, with net income from asset management fees down 1.09% year-on-year [14][17]. - The company’s self-operated business has increased its non-directional investment layout, maintaining stable investment income (including fair value changes) with a year-on-year increase of 0.38% [17][22]. - The company’s overseas business revenue grew by 25.02% year-on-year, indicating robust performance in international markets [21][22]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.69 yuan, down 8.00% year-on-year, and a return on equity (ROE) of 3.96%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points year-on-year [4][6][22]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 2.40 yuan per share (before tax), representing 34.89% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year [6][22]. Business Segments - The brokerage business accounted for 16.2% of net income, investment banking for 5.7%, asset management for 16.3%, interest income for 3.7%, and investment income for 39.6% in the first half of 2024 [7][10]. - The company’s wealth management business has focused on refined customer management and upgraded its advisory talent development strategy, achieving a customer base of 14.7 million, an increase of 500,000 from the end of 2023 [10][11]. Market Position - Despite challenges in equity financing, the company maintained its leading position in the market, with a market share of 18.44% in equity financing and 14.36% in debt financing, both ranking first in the industry [11][14]. - The company’s asset management business continues to lead the market with a market share of 13.23% [14][17]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to have an EPS of 1.19 yuan and 1.29 yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding book value per share (BVPS) of 18.00 yuan and 19.00 yuan [22][26].