Mabwell(SH:688062) Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2024-09-21 06:37Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant performance in its 2024 interim report, achieving a revenue of 116 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.42%. The pharmaceutical sales revenue reached 65.67 million yuan, up 371.85% from the previous year [3]. - The core pipeline, Nectin-4 ADC (9MW2821), is progressing well with multiple ADCs advancing rapidly. The company is conducting various clinical studies for indications such as urothelial carcinoma, cervical cancer, esophageal cancer, and triple-negative breast cancer, with FDA fast track designation obtained [3][4]. - The commercialization of biosimilars is steadily advancing, solidifying the company's fundamentals with three biosimilars actively being marketed [3]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 259 million, 864 million, and 2.013 billion yuan, respectively, with significant year-on-year growth rates of 361.0%, 102.8%, and 133.1% [5][6]. - The gross margin is projected to be 87.3% in 2024, improving to 93.8% by 2026 [5]. - The net profit forecast shows a loss of 1.065 billion yuan in 2024, narrowing to a loss of 175 million yuan by 2026 [5][6]. Pipeline Development - The company has several promising drugs in its pipeline, including 8MW0511 for neutropenia, 6MW3211 for various advanced malignancies, and 9MW1911 for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, among others, with various stages of clinical trials [4][6]. - The ADC pipeline includes 7MW3711 targeting B7-H3 and 9MW2921 targeting Trop-2, both currently in clinical trials [3][4]. Valuation - Using a DCF method with a perpetual growth rate of 2% and a WACC of 8.8%, the company's fair equity value is estimated at 13.1 billion yuan [3].