洽洽食品更新报告：改善延续，激励到位

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qiaqia Food with a target price of 32.59 CNY [3][4][11] Core Views - The company is expected to see improvements in both costs and revenues in Q3 2024, likely entering a recovery phase. Factors contributing to this include channel improvements, inventory replenishment, and demand recovery, particularly in the seeds and nuts segments [2][10] - The introduction of a stock incentive plan for 2024 is anticipated to enhance team motivation and accelerate improvements in the company's performance [3][11] - The snack food sector remains a stable performance area, with Qiaqia Food benefiting from channel reforms and product diversification, suggesting a high probability of sequential improvement in performance in the second half of 2024 [3][11] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 7,631 million CNY, reflecting a 12.1% increase from 2023. Net profit is expected to reach 972 million CNY, a 21.1% increase from the previous year [4][11] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for the upcoming years are 1.92 CNY for 2024, 2.47 CNY for 2025, and 2.81 CNY for 2026 [3][4][11] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve in Q3 2024 due to a decline in raw material costs [10][11] Market Data - The stock has a market capitalization of 13,836 million CNY, with a current price of 27.29 CNY, within a 52-week price range of 24.10 to 38.29 CNY [5][4] - The company has a net asset return rate of 14.5% for 2023, projected to rise to 15.3% in 2024 [4][6]