沧州明珠：BOPA盈利短期承压，隔膜业务持续推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 3.08 CNY based on a 14x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.23 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 46.8% to 90 million CNY [1]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to decreased sales in PE pipes, negative gross margin in BOPA film business, and reduced gross margin in lithium battery separators [1]. - The company is aggressively expanding its separator business, with a long-term capacity plan nearing 2.5 billion square meters, and has already achieved a 50% year-on-year increase in effective capacity [1]. - Despite short-term competitive pressures in the BOPA film market, long-term demand is expected to grow steadily due to structural adjustments in downstream consumption industries [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 2.619 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 7.6%, but is expected to rebound with a growth of 31.4% in 2024 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decrease to 178 million CNY in 2024, with a further recovery expected in subsequent years [3]. - The gross margin is expected to decline to 12.2% in 2024, with a gradual recovery projected thereafter [3].