通信行业2024年中报综述：高景气度凸显，估值历史底部

Industry Overview - The communication equipment industry (excluding the three major operators) achieved revenue of 299 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.41%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 24.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.12% [3] - In Q2 2024, the industry's revenue grew by 10.31% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 17.96% year-on-year [3] - The AI industry chain and export chain performed better in terms of revenue and profit, driven by the continuous realization of AI performance and overseas restocking demand [3] AI and Computing Power Industry - The computing power industry, particularly the AI sector, saw significant growth in H1 2024, with revenue increasing by 94.73% year-on-year and net profit attributable to the parent company growing by 158.34% [30] - In Q2 2024, the AI-driven demand for high-speed modules (400G and 800G) led to a 105.55% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 149.57% increase in net profit [30] - Cloud service providers' capital expenditures (Capex) on AI-related infrastructure are expected to remain a key driver of growth in the coming quarters [30] Operators - The three major operators (China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom) maintained their full-year guidance, with China Mobile revising its Capex guidance downward to less than 173 billion yuan [24] - The operators' AI computing power construction exceeded expectations, with China Mobile reaching 19.6 EFLOPS in H1 2024, surpassing its annual target [24] - The operators' accounts receivable increased by over 20% in H1 2024, mainly due to the rising proportion of 2B business with longer payment cycles [27] Optical Modules - The optical module industry achieved revenue of 20.09 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 94.73%, with net profit attributable to the parent company growing by 158.34% [30] - The industry's gross margin improved to 34.40% in H1 2024, up 3.5 percentage points from 2023, driven by higher-margin AI-related products [31] - The demand for 800G modules, driven by AI, contributed significantly to the industry's profitability [30] IDC and Supporting Equipment - The IDC industry saw a 23.45% year-on-year revenue growth in H1 2024, driven by increased demand for AI-related servers and faster customer deployment [34] - The industry's gross margin fluctuated, with Q2 2024 gross margin dropping to 27.67%, influenced by the higher proportion of low-margin high-performance server sales [36] - Traditional IDC providers are transitioning to comprehensive computing power service providers, benefiting from the AI-driven demand for high-power racks [34] IoT and Communication Modules - The IoT sector experienced a significant recovery in H1 2024, with revenue increasing by 20.99% year-on-year and net profit attributable to the parent company growing by 54.19% [45] - The communication module industry saw a 30.23% year-on-year revenue growth in H1 2024, driven by strong demand in 5G and 4G Cat 1 applications, particularly in smart vehicles and IoT devices [51] - The industry's gross margin improved to 18.0% in H1 2024, up from 17.1% in 2023, as the impact of high-cost raw materials diminished [53] Fiber Optic and Submarine Cables - The fiber optic and submarine cable industry achieved revenue of 59.2 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.04%, but net profit attributable to the parent company declined by 15.98% [39] - The industry's gross margin improved to 17.62% in H1 2024, up 0.62 percentage points from 2023, despite the decline in the proportion of marine business [42] - Exports of fiber optic cables and optical fibers slowed down, with a 7% year-on-year decline in export value for fiber optic cables and a 17% decline for optical fibers [44] Beidou Navigation - The Beidou navigation sector saw a decline in both revenue and profit in H1 2024, with revenue down 23.88% year-on-year and net profit attributable to the parent company down 44.26% [57] - The sector's gross margin improved to 43.04% in Q2 2024, up 4.50 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the growth in civilian applications [60] - The Beidou system's global deployment is expected to drive demand in both military and civilian markets, particularly in smart driving and precision agriculture [61] Enterprise Communication - The enterprise communication sector saw a recovery in H1 2024, with revenue increasing by 30.50% year-on-year, driven by improved macroeconomic conditions in Europe and the US [63] - The sector's gross margin improved, with Yealink Network's gross margin for conference products reaching 65.76% in 2023, up 1.07 percentage points year-on-year [62] - The sector is expected to benefit from the increasing adoption of hybrid work models and the demand for efficient communication solutions [63]