大类资产配置周度点评：空中加油：全球风险偏好系统性提升

Market Outlook - The tactical asset allocation view remains unchanged, with a more optimistic outlook on global equities and commodities, while being cautious on U.S. Treasuries[2] - The recent 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has not heightened recession fears but has strengthened confidence in a soft landing for the economy[3] - Economic data indicates resilience in the U.S. economy, with marginal contraction but no signs of a sharp slowdown[3] Asset Allocation Performance - The domestic active asset allocation portfolio achieved a weekly return of 0.43%, underperforming the benchmark index return of 0.63%, resulting in an excess return of -0.20%[11] - As of September 22, 2024, the domestic portfolio has a cumulative excess return of 8.23% (annualized 40.98%) and an absolute return of 1.28% (annualized 5.68%)[11] - The global active asset allocation portfolio recorded a weekly return of 0.53%, outperforming the benchmark index return of 0.40%, leading to an excess return of 0.13%[24] Future Adjustments - Adjustments to the domestic and global active asset allocation portfolios are planned for September 23, 2024, due to the Fed's rate cut cycle and improved global risk appetite[10] - The domestic equity allocation remains at 15.00%, while bond allocation is maintained at 70.00%[20] - The commodity allocation is set at 15.00%, with gold adjusted from 13.50% to 11.25% and fuel increased from 0.75% to 2.25%[22] Risk Factors - There are limitations in analysis dimensions, subjective model design, and potential discrepancies between historical and expected data, which may affect market consensus expectations[3]