食品饮料行业专题研究：转折期的消费路径选择

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, consistent with the previous rating [2][17]. Core Insights - The consumption sector, including food and beverage companies, is entering a transformative era where the drivers of Return on Equity (ROE) will shift from net profit margins and asset turnover to financial leverage and operational efficiency [3][5]. - The report identifies several categories of leading consumer goods companies that are expected to maintain stable growth, including beverage leaders, seasoning leaders, and high-end liquor brands [3][9]. - The current phase of the Chinese consumer goods industry is characterized as a preliminary adjustment stage, with expectations of a gradual decline in net profit margins and asset turnover due to weakening growth dividends and rising labor costs [6][9]. Summary by Sections 1. ROE Perspective: Transformation of Growth Paths - Chinese consumer goods companies exhibit high net profit margins and asset turnover, benefiting from a single market growth dividend [5][6]. - The report anticipates a "fat reduction and muscle gain" process for companies that previously relied on high operational leverage for growth [5][6]. 2. Valuation: Dominated by the Denominator, Certainty Premium - The current market trend is primarily driven by the denominator, with a focus on stable growth rather than short-term growth rates [8][10]. - Historical analysis indicates that previous bull markets were driven by both numerator and denominator factors, while the current market emphasizes certainty in valuations [8]. 3. Corporate Path Selection: Going Global, Affordable Pricing, Innovation, and Diversification - The report suggests that companies should focus on international expansion, affordable consumer products, product innovation, and business diversification to navigate the current consumption transition [9][10]. - Future investment focus will be on companies with stable long-cycle categories, strong brand power, and the ability to innovate and adapt to market trends [9][10].