Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is currently at a bottoming phase, with expectations for demand improvement and supply restructuring, leading to enhanced competitive advantages for industry leaders [2][3]. - The report anticipates a gradual stabilization in demand, particularly as the negative impact from the real estate sector diminishes and infrastructure projects continue to provide support [3][7]. - Profitability in the steel industry is expected to gradually recover, with a noted increase in profit margins from 1.30% to 9.96% as of September 20, 2024, compared to the lowest point in August [3][11]. Summary by Sections Demand - The report predicts a year-on-year decline of 2.85% in total steel demand for 2024, primarily due to a decrease in real estate demand, which has fallen below 20% of total demand [7][10]. - Infrastructure projects are expected to play a stabilizing role, while manufacturing is projected to maintain steady growth, offsetting some declines in real estate-related steel demand [3][7]. Supply - There is an anticipated contraction in supply, driven by ongoing production cuts among loss-making steel companies and government policies aimed at reducing crude steel output [10][12]. - The report highlights that the steel industry has entered a phase of supply contraction after two years of losses, with crude steel production expected to decline by 3.3% year-on-year in 2024 [10][12]. Inventory - Steel inventory levels are currently at historical lows, with a significant reduction observed in the inventory of major steel products, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance [14][15]. - The report notes that as of September 13, 2024, total inventory for major steel products was 14.19 million tons, down 6.00% from the previous month and 10.17% year-on-year [14]. Steel Prices - The report forecasts a downward trend in steel prices for 2024, with the average price for rebar and hot-rolled steel expected to decrease by approximately 8.97% and 8.43% respectively compared to 2023 [20][21]. - Seasonal demand recovery is anticipated to lead to some price fluctuations, but overall, the price center is expected to shift downward due to weak overall demand [19][20]. Costs - The report indicates that cost pressures are likely to ease, primarily due to the focus on global iron ore supply and price changes, which significantly impact steel production costs [22][23]. - Iron ore and coking coal account for about 70% of total steel production costs, with iron ore alone constituting approximately 50% [22].
钢铁行业2024年四季度策略报告：行业底部，静待供需反转
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-09-22 08:40