煤炭行业周报：基本面再超预期，板块拐点已然不远

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector is experiencing a strong demand season, with fundamentals exceeding market expectations. A turning point for the coal industry is anticipated soon, supported by a decline in long-term interest rates, indicating a second wave of opportunities within the year [2][3] Summary by Sections Coal Consumption and Price Trends - In August, the total electricity consumption reached 964.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, indicating robust electricity demand that surpassed market expectations. The growth rate of thermal power generation improved from a decline of 4.9% in July to an increase of 3.7% in August [3] - The report highlights that the daily coal consumption remains stable, with prices showing a slight upward trend. For instance, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port increased by 9 CNY/ton (1.0%) to 876 CNY/ton as of September 20, 2024 [6][9] - The report notes that the price of thermal coal is expected to remain above 800 CNY/ton, with a clearer bottom for price adjustments anticipated [3][6] Recommendations for Companies - Recommended companies include Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua for their high profitability and stability. New Energy, benefiting from Shaanxi's energy, is also recommended, along with long-term contract coking coal companies such as Hengyuan Coal Power and Pingmei Shenma [3] - Central enterprises leading in state-owned enterprise reform, such as China Coal Energy, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the coal sector is undergoing a valuation reshaping, reflecting profound changes in supply and demand structures, and a shift towards a utility-like model. This trend is further supported by a market preference for high-dividend assets amid a backdrop of asset scarcity [3] - The report also mentions that the coal price adjustments are influenced by seasonal factors, with expectations of increased demand as the winter storage season approaches [3][6]