AMEC(SH:688012) Huajin Securities·2024-09-22 11:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next six months compared to the CSI 300 index [1][6]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit significantly from the domestic shift towards local semiconductor equipment, particularly as Yangtze Memory Technologies accelerates its transition from American to domestic equipment [1]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with expectations of new orders exceeding 7.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing over 50% year-on-year growth [1]. - The company is actively expanding its product lines, including etching equipment, thin film deposition equipment, and inspection equipment, which are expected to drive robust growth [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Yangtze Memory Technologies is rapidly replacing American equipment with domestic alternatives, benefiting companies like the report's subject [1]. - The company reported a significant increase in etching equipment revenue, reaching 2.698 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year growth of 56.68% [1]. - The company anticipates a total of 11 to 13 billion yuan in new orders for 2024, with a projected shipment increase of over 200% year-on-year [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are set at 8.368 billion, 11.163 billion, and 14.592 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 33.6%, 33.4%, and 30.7% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.810 billion, 2.396 billion, and 3.235 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 1.4%, 32.4%, and 35.0% [2]. - The company's gross margin is projected to remain stable, around 46% over the forecast period [2]. Market Position and Product Development - The company has established itself as a leader in the domestic etching equipment market, with a significant increase in market share and technological advancements [1]. - The company is focusing on high-aspect-ratio etching technologies and has made substantial progress in developing ultra-low temperature etching technologies [1]. - New product lines, including the Primo TwinStar® and LPCVD equipment, have successfully entered customer validation stages, indicating strong market demand [2].