农业周观点：美联储降息落地，关注消费预期改善

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [3][56]. Core Insights - The report highlights that after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, there is an expectation for improved consumer sentiment, particularly in sectors with strong consumption attributes like pet food [3][8]. - The report notes a recent adjustment in the pig market following the Mid-Autumn Festival, with a national average price of 18.62 yuan/kg as of September 20, reflecting a decrease of 3.2% from before the holiday and 6.8% from the beginning of the month [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the pet food sector, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 17% for pet staple food, 15% for nutritional products, and 25% for snacks by 2026 [8][16]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenyuan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector decreased by 3.26%, ranking 29th out of 31 industries [1][3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.05%, and the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.94% [1]. Livestock Industry - The average daily slaughter volume for sample enterprises was 156,114 heads, a week-on-week increase of 9.02% [3]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter was 125.97 kg, showing a slight week-on-week increase [3]. Pet Food Sector - The report identifies leading domestic pet food companies such as Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Pei Ti Co. as key investment targets due to their strong market positions and growth potential [3][16]. - The pet food industry is expected to maintain rapid growth, supported by brand strategies and market expansion efforts by leading companies [8][16]. Grain and Crop Industry - The report discusses the expected increase in global wheat supply and consumption for the 2024/25 period, with a projected supply increase of 1.5 million tons [14]. - It also notes adjustments in global rice supply and demand, with an increase in supply by 300,000 tons due to higher initial stocks in India [14]. Company Insights - The report mentions that Muyuan Foods aims to achieve a breeding cost of 13 yuan/kg by the end of the year, reflecting a continuous decline in costs [22]. - Dongrui Co. has expanded its scale and secured a quota of over 200,000 heads for supply to Hong Kong [26].