银行专题测算|上市银行的个人经营贷：高风险占比低

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for the banking sector [1] Core Views - The personal business loan (PBL) market has doubled in size over the past four years, reaching nearly 24 trillion yuan by 1H24 [10] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for PBLs in sample banks has decreased by 58 basis points (bp) to 1.26% since 2019, but has shown an upward trend since the second half of 2023 [9] - High-risk PBLs, particularly those tied to real estate, are estimated to exceed 2 trillion yuan, accounting for 9.3% of the total PBL balance by 1H24 [31] - The impact of high-risk PBLs on bank asset quality and profitability is considered manageable, with potential NPL ratio increases ranging from 2 to 14 basis points and profit impacts ranging from -2.2% to -11.1% [25] Personal Business Loan Overview - Definition: PBLs are typically 3-5 years in duration, with a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio generally not exceeding 70% of the assessed property value [9] - Market Size: The national PBL market has doubled from 11.4 trillion yuan in 2019 to 23.8 trillion yuan by 1H24, driven by policy support for small and micro-enterprises [10] - Structure: Long-term PBLs (over one year) have seen higher growth compared to short-term PBLs, contributing significantly to the overall increase in PBLs [10] - Listed Banks: Listed banks account for 50% of the national PBL market, with state-owned banks leading in expansion, growing over 3 times in the past four years [11] High-Risk PBLs and Real Estate Linkages - Real Estate Linkages: PBLs have been increasingly used for real estate purposes, with a significant negative correlation between PBL growth and residential mortgage loan growth [16] - High-Risk PBLs: It is estimated that 2.21 trillion yuan of PBLs flowed into the real estate market in 2021, with listed banks accounting for 50% of this amount [25] - Pressure Test: If high-risk PBLs experience default rates of 10%-50%, the overall NPL ratio for listed banks could increase by 2-14 basis points, with profit impacts ranging from -2.2% to -11.1% [25] Mortgage Collateral Risk - Collateral Value Decline: The value of collateral for PBLs has declined, with national second-hand home prices falling by 8%-15% from their peak in 2021 [20] - Pressure Test: If collateral values continue to decline by 19.4%-26.7%, the collateral may fall below the LTV threshold, increasing the risk of defaults [25] Investment Recommendations - Defensive and High-Dividend Stocks: The report recommends investing in high-dividend, state-owned banks such as Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [3] - Quality City and Rural Commercial Banks: Banks like Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank are highlighted for their strong fundamentals and attractive valuations [3] - Core Assets: In the event of a stronger economic recovery, core assets such as China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank are recommended [3]