策略周报：美联储首次降息落地如何影响资产定价？

Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve's recent 50 basis points rate cut has initiated a monetary easing cycle, leading to a rebound in global equity markets, with Hong Kong stocks performing particularly well, as the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 5.12% and 6.44% respectively [2][8] - In the domestic market, A-shares experienced a slight rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index increasing by 1.21% and 0.09% respectively. The average daily trading volume across the A-share market rose to 562.6 billion yuan, although liquidity remains relatively weak [2][15] - The easing monetary policy is expected to benefit sectors such as real estate, home appliances, and non-ferrous metals, which saw price increases between 4% and 7% [2][15] Domestic Developments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.35% for one year and 3.85% for five years as of September 21, 2024 [3][5] - The central government is focusing on promoting technological innovation and mergers and acquisitions, with recent policies supporting the listing of qualified tech companies domestically and abroad [3][5] - The fiscal revenue for the first eight months of 2024 showed a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, with total public budget revenue at 14.78 trillion yuan [4][5] International Developments - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range to 4.75%-5.00% aligns with market expectations, with projections indicating potential further cuts of 100-125 basis points in 2025 [8][2] - Following the rate cut, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 3.72%, while the U.S. dollar index decreased slightly to 101.9 [8][2] - Global equity markets, particularly in Hong Kong and Japan, saw significant rebounds, with major indices rising between 3% and 5% in the days following the Fed's announcement [8][2] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a slight overall increase, with the real estate, non-ferrous metals, and home appliance sectors leading the gains [15][16] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market increased to 562.6 billion yuan, indicating a slight uptick in market activity [15][16] - The performance of various sectors showed that technology and high-end manufacturing are expected to benefit from ongoing policy support and industry transformation [3][15]