Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 0.79% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.11 percentage points, ranking 31st in industry performance. Year-to-date, the sector has dropped 27.56%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 20.85 percentage points, ranking 27th [6][21]. - The current valuation level for the pharmaceutical industry (PE-TTM) is 22 times, with a premium of 76.24% relative to all A-shares, a decrease of 3.69 percentage points. The premium relative to all A-shares excluding banks is 32.47% (down 2.67 percentage points), and the premium relative to the CSI 300 is 110.52% (down 4.84 percentage points) [6][28]. - The best-performing sub-sector this week was offline pharmacies, which rose by 4.6%. The three sub-sectors with the smallest declines year-to-date are pharmaceutical distribution, chemical preparations, and raw materials, with declines of 17.4%, 17.7%, and 18.3%, respectively [6]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy and Key Stocks - The report emphasizes that the recent downturn in the innovative drug sector should not be viewed pessimistically. The decline is attributed to rumors of tighter medical insurance negotiations and a reduction in the number of drugs passing expert reviews. The report anticipates that the negotiation success rate will remain stable, favoring innovative drugs to exchange price for volume [2][6]. - The report reiterates the mid-term strategy for 2024, focusing on three main lines: undervalued stocks, overseas expansion, and essential hospital needs. Specific areas of interest include high-dividend OTC stocks, medical device exports, and rigid hospital demand post-medical corruption investigations [2][6]. Recommended Combinations - The report lists several recommended stocks, including: - Recommended Combination: Betta Pharmaceuticals (300558), Sino Medical (688108), Shanghai Laishi (002252), Rongchang Bio (688331), Yihe Jiaye (301367), Mayinglong (600993), and Meihua Medical (301363) [7]. - Conservative Combination: Hengrui Medicine (600276), New Industry (300832), Huadong Medicine (000963), Ganli Pharmaceutical (603087), Enhua Pharmaceutical (002262), Jichuan Pharmaceutical (600566), Kew Flower Pharmaceutical (002737), and Yifan Pharmaceutical (002019) [7]. - Sci-Tech Board Combination: Shouyao Holdings-U (688197), Zejing Pharmaceutical-U (688266), Shengxiang Bio (688289), Borui Pharmaceutical (688166), and Pumen Technology (688389) [7]. - Hong Kong Stock Combination: Hutchison Whampoa (0013), CanSino Biologics (9926), Kelun-Bio (6990), Xiansheng Pharmaceutical (2096), Ascentage Pharma-B (6855), Zai Lab (9688), and Innovent Biologics (9969) [7]. Market Performance - The report notes that the overall performance of the recommended stocks in the previous week saw a decline of 4.1%, underperforming the market by 5.4 percentage points and the pharmaceutical index by 3.3 percentage points [11][12]. - The conservative combination experienced a decline of 0.8%, underperforming the market by 2.1 percentage points [13][14]. - The Sci-Tech Board combination faced a decline of 6.1%, underperforming the market by 7.4 percentage points [16][17]. - The Hong Kong stock combination decreased by 0.6%, underperforming the market by 4.3 percentage points [19][20].
医药行业周报：创新药短期回调，无需过于悲观
Southwest Securities·2024-09-23 00:31